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The industry is fragmented and blind expansion of production capacity
In order to curb the blind expansion of the chlor-alkali industry and promote the upgrading of industrial structure, the National Development and Reform Commission recently issued the “Calkaline (Calonace, PVC) Industry Access Requirementsâ€, which has been implemented since December 1, 2007. However, the increase in access conditions is still difficult to curb short-term capacity expansion. The current fragmented status of the chlor-alkali industry is difficult to completely change in the short term.
According to the incomplete statistics of the relevant departments on the domestic chlor-alkali industry under construction projects, only calcium carbide chlor-alkali enterprises with planned production capacity exceeding 300,000 tons/year will reach 16, and the total planned production capacity will be 11.3 million tons, which exceeds that in 2006. The apparent consumption of 9.21 million tons, and this statistic has not taken into account the ethylene chloralkali production capacity encouraged by the industrial policy.
Statistics show that in 2006, there were 25 companies in the domestic chlor-alkali industry with PVC production exceeding 100,000 tons, among which Tianjin Dagu Chemical Plant ranked No. 1 in 2006 with a production volume of 582,000 tons, accounting for 7.2% of the total domestic production in the same year. The total output of the top 25 enterprises in 2006 was 5,384.8 thousand tons, accounting for 66.89% of the domestic output. At present, the world’s largest PVC manufacturer, Yuexin, has exceeded 3 million tons in production capacity in 2005, and its global market share has reached 8.3%. The world’s fifth-largest production capacity of Surva also reached 900,000 tons. In comparison, domestic manufacturers are still weak.
From the perspective of demand, in the five years since 2001, the compound annual growth rate of apparent PVC demand in China is about 12%. If the future demand continues this growth rate, the annual new demand in the domestic market is about 1 million tons. . However, according to the incomplete statistics on the construction of domestic chlor-alkali enterprises and the planned new production capacity of 98 companies, the domestic PVC production capacity to be put into production in 2007 and 2008 will reach 2.43 million tons and 1.93 million tons, respectively, which will exceed the annual growth in market demand. Space can only be achieved by repartitioning existing market shares.
Industry concentration, balanced prices will decline
At present, although Western companies have strong cost advantages, due to the distance from the major consumer markets in the east, the freight cost of products is large, and the equilibrium competition price is RMB 400-1,000/ton higher than that of eastern enterprises. The integration of the domestic chlor-alkali industry It may be relatively tortuous and long.
Although ethylene companies are greatly affected by the increase in crude oil prices and ethylene prices, due to the fact that these companies generally operate in conjunction with refineries, ethylene, and other downstream chemical products, ethylene companies that have raw materials and financial guarantees generally continue to produce. For example, Qilu Petrochemical's capacity utilization rate of PVC plant reached 95% in 2006, and Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical began to recover its profit in the first half of 2007. As the industry's production capacity is concentrated in the low-cost regions and advantageous manufacturers in the west, the equilibrium price of the chlor-alkali industry will continue to decline. In the long run, the excess profits of the dominant companies in the chlor-alkali industry are gradually being averaged.
Fourth quarter decline in prices, production capacity has been seen
After the chlor-alkali industry entered the fourth quarter, adverse factors such as the decline in seasonal demand, the introduction of new domestic production capacity, and the appreciation of the renminbi led to a decrease in the quotations of imported products and increased imports. The price of calcium carbide polyvinyl chloride in the domestic East China market was already at 7800 yuan. The high level of the ton has dropped significantly to the recent low level of 7,000 yuan/ton. This price level is already lower than the previous forecast of an average annual price of 7,300 yuan/ton, which may affect the listed companies in the industry in the whole year of 2007 and 2008. Annual profit forecast.
However, the good news is that the level of industry concentration is further increasing. According to 2006 statistics, the top 25 companies had a total capacity of 5.878 million tons in 2006, which accounted for 50.76% of the total domestic production capacity. The top 25 enterprises had a capacity utilization rate of 91.61% in 2006, which is far higher than the industry's average of 71%. Level. The higher capacity utilization rate of industry-dominant enterprises indicates that the profitability of products with resource advantages is relatively strong, and the capacity expansion rate in the future will also exceed that of higher-cost manufacturers, leading to a concentration of domestic PVC production capacity.
With the recent National Development and Reform Commission raising the chlor-alkali industry access threshold, chlor-alkali industry integration will embark on the journey. However, under the circumstances of relatively slow demand growth and expected dramatic increase in production capacity, the competition for industry share will be extremely fierce. The industry's production capacity will be concentrated in the low-cost regions and advantageous manufacturers in the western region.