A number of people in the industry said that because of the negative development rate of international crude oil prices, the price cut for refined oil products is expected to be significant. Among them, some analysts believe that although the international crude oil in the next two days is still slightly up, it is expected that this round of reduction will still exceed 100 yuan.

Refined oil prices may be reduced by 100 yuan/ton

Data show that from the beginning of the month Brent crude oil futures prices fell to 107 US dollars / barrel, crude oil futures prices have been between 106.3 to 107.8 US dollars / barrel, the world's major crude oil futures prices are in a slight shock down trend, the domestic oil prices The reference to the international crude oil rate of change is also a negative development. In recent days, the international crude oil change rate is below -2%, which further aggravated the domestic oil price reduction expectation.

In this regard, industry researcher Wang Jian said that the current international crude oil market demand is relatively low, the global geographical disputes are also tend to be flat, crude oil prices are unlikely to produce greater fluctuations, the price adjustment should already be a matter to be nailed, is expected to 2014 1 When the price adjustment window was opened on the 24th of this month, the refined oil price adjustment rate was around 0.1 yuan/l.

Analysts believe that the domestic refined oil market will quickly switch back to lower expectations after undergoing the first adjustment during the year. This week, refined oil will usher in the first “two consecutive losses” in 2014. Beijing time January 22 was the 8th working day of the 21st round of valuation cycle after the implementation of the new mechanism. Zhongyu crude oil was valued at 106.626 USD/barrel, and the crude oil change rate went to -2.11%. In the next two days, international crude oil is still likely to climb slightly, and the extent of refined oil product cuts may narrow slightly. It is expected that this round of reduction will still exceed 100 yuan.

Price adjustment has less impact on refinery companies

At the beginning of the current round of the pricing cycle, the market quickly turned down its expectations. In addition to the Spring Festival, most of the industrial and mining and infrastructure projects have been suspended. The demand for diesel terminals has been declining. Market players have increased their delisting mentality. Downstream businesses are under the expected impact of downward adjustments. The enthusiasm is extremely light, and the atmosphere of market buying and selling is deserted. In terms of gasoline, the demand for terminal equipment has improved somewhat during the Spring Festival. The reduction in refined oil products will reduce the cost of transportation and consumer private car travel.

"Since New Year's Day, domestic gasoline has been fully replaced to the National IV standard. According to the National Development and Reform Commission's policy of high quality price hikes, the country's tertiary standard has been upgraded to the National IV Standard 90# standard gasoline at a price increase of 290 yuan per ton, plus a reduction in the price of gasoline by 125 yuan per ton. After the rate, the “two-pronged decline” of refined oil products will offset most of the price increase for gasoline upgrades, which will benefit the people’s livelihood.The reduction in refined oil products will squeeze the profit of the refining segment, but this time the refined oil price adjustment coincides with the Spring Festival and the suppression of the light market price. Some of the domestic refining facilities have been suspended. As a whole, the price adjustment will have less impact on the refining process, analysts said.

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