Distinguishing Technical Genre in the Field of Transmission

Due to its good operating performance and fuel economy, the dual clutch automatic transmission (DCT) has become an attractive choice in the transmission market and has received much attention. A European forecast report shows that compared with 2016, the DCT market will increase from 1.49 million vehicles this year to 2.83 million vehicles in 2016, an increase of 89%. Its market share will increase from 7% to 12%, an increase of 71%.

Compared to other regions in the world, DCT has more opportunities in Europe. Because most European motorists are accustomed to using manual transmissions (MTs), they expect to feel the same as driving a sports car.

In 2003, Volkswagen first introduced the 6-speed DCT, which is used in the Volkswagen Golf and Audi TT models, using products developed by US supplier BorgWarner. It can be considered that the public is a pioneer in this market. Some parts suppliers (such as Schaeffler) and automotive companies have developed and adopted this technology, which has led to the promotion of the market and even the installation of a Ferrari California sports car.

Although DCT is increasingly popular, MT market share will still increase by 8.5% in 2016 compared to this year. This is because DCT prices are higher. MT is the cheapest transmission system. At the same time, the automaker's manual transmission (AMT), which was once popular in China, is expected to reduce its market share from 3% to 2% over the next five years. The absolute amount of loading will also drop by 22.9%.

The Japanese popular CVT became a loser in the European market. In the next five years, its market share will be reduced from 2% this year to 1%. However, Japanese automakers believe that the cost of the CVT is lower than that of the DCT, and its small axial size is conducive to the development of compact and lightweight vehicles. This is actually two different energy-saving emission reduction technology routes.

Compared with various technical schools in the market, the more traditional automatic transmission (AT) still successfully maintained its market share. Compared with 2006, its market share in 2011 was 15%, but the amount of loading increased by 15.4%. Of these, the high-end ATs with speeds of more than 6 speeds will increase significantly. This is because leading companies such as ZF and Aisin Seiki promoted AT's technological development. In 2007, ZF and Aisin respectively developed an 8-speed automatic transmission. This year ZF introduced a 9-speed AT for front-wheel drive, and said that it has improved fuel economy by 16% over 6-speed AT.

It is understood that Mercedes-Benz is also developing its own 9G-Tronic 9-speed automatic transmission, and will be used for the first time on the S-Class next year. However, this competition to increase gears seems to have an end, because the increase in the cost caused by more stalls and the increase in the proportion of fuel economy will be misaligned.

The "favored" competition in the technical school of this transmission field will have many variables along with the new development of technology. Using today's vision and cognitive level to predict future development is not necessarily comprehensive.