Impulse dealers face a dilemma at the end of the year (2)

The difference between production and sales shows that the year-end test becomes a key concern. The survey report of the China Automobile Dealers Association is only used as reference data between manufacturers and distributors. Prior to the formation of accurate data, inventory pressure has become a sharp sword hanging over the dealer's head.

According to industry sources, dealers in the front line of the auto market have the highest sensitivity to the market. The improvement of the market in the third quarter and the arrival of the sales season in the fourth quarter do not mean that the distributors have no psychological burden.

Beginning in April this year, dealers have experienced a wave of inventory tests. Many dealers whose stocks have been reduced to a reasonable range are still worried about their inventory. Some of them even said that the pressure on stocks is likely to recur at the end of the year. "How much dealers inventory depends on the manufacturer's grasp and judgment on the market." A luxury brand dealer told reporters that the optimistic judgment of the auto market trend and the pursuit of good sales performance will often make manufacturers in the At the end of the year, a large number of warehouses were pressed to the dealers. “Once the market is not expected to be hot, or if even a little accidental situation occurs, the cars pressed by these manufacturers may become indigestible stocks.” The dealer said so.

Rao Da, Secretary-General of the National Passenger Car Information Association, expressed in the interview that he was worried about the increase in inventories again. “The competition in the auto market in the fourth quarter will be more severe, and the pressure on the warehouse will surely rise again. The pressure on distributors can be considered. And know."

Yan Jinghui told reporters that since the beginning of this year, dealers’ inventory issues have caused the relevant authorities to pay close attention. However, in the face of year-end sales task pressure, the end market may repeat high stocks in June before the end of the year.

From the new plans announced by various manufacturers, the output of car companies this year is expected to be more than 18 million, and inventory is exactly the difference between production and sales. “In the industry, it is widely predicted that China’s auto sales this year will be 17 million vehicles, but this is only a conservative estimate. The end of the year is the best time for manufacturers to inject impulses. The amount of inventory depends on the status of manufacturers’ supply of distributors.” The analysis of Zhu Yiping, Assistant Secretary-General of the Circulation Association, left a suspense at the end of the year before dealer stock judgments.

The completion of the production and sales of manufacturers decided that the dealers at the end of the promotion efforts are the same as those of dealers. Many consumers who have a car purchase plan are now squatting. For example, Mr. Li has long planned to purchase a car at the end of the year. He believes that manufacturers need impulse at the end of the year and should be the lowest price. However, after a period of market research, Mr. Li found that the supply of some models in the auto market is very tight, and there is no trend of increasing inventory at the end of the year and dealers are cutting prices. In the face of this phenomenon, Mr. Li couldn't help but wonder if he should wait until the end of the year to buy another car. Will the dealers enter the car in large quantities for the purpose of impulse, and will greatly reduce the price?

Whether or not to replenish sources of supply in the near future is a question many distributors are thinking about. However, for consumers, the more concerned is the question of which models will continue to reduce prices, and can wait for more shots; which model prices will not be too volatile at the end of the year and can now be purchased.

In response to consumer concerns, the reporter conducted an in-depth investigation of the capital's major auto trading markets and interviewed a number of industry experts. After learning that the auto market in 2010 continued its good sales momentum, many manufacturers completed the annual sales plan. Not difficult, so these manufacturers are unlikely to reduce the price of impulse at the end of the year; but there are also some manufacturers to complete the annual sales target is difficult, so the possibility of reducing the price of impulse at the end of the year.

So, in the end what brands should wait, which brands can be shot at any time? We seem to be able to draw some conclusions by comparing the annual sales targets of car manufacturers and the number of sales that have been completed.

The data shows that Shanghai GM, Shanghai Volkswagen, FAW-Volkswagen, and Dongfeng Nissan, etc., will not be a problem in fulfilling their annual sales targets. From January to September, the sales of the above-mentioned four car companies were 680,200, 642,200, 623,300, and 442,400, respectively. The four car companies have set a target of 850,000, 829,000, and 82 this year. Millions and 600,000 vehicles. Through calculations, we can see that in the remaining three months, Shanghai General Motors, Shanghai Volkswagen, FAW-Volkswagen and Dongfeng Nissan can complete their tasks as long as they complete 56,600, 59,900, 65,600 and 58,500 vehicles respectively. Obviously, over-achieving compliance has become inevitable, and naturally, there is no need for meat promotion on the car price.

Indeed, after the reporter visited the auto market, it was discovered that in addition to Dongfeng Nissan, among the above four car companies, the inventory of the other three car companies was very small, and the discount rate of the models was also very small.

Shanghai GM 4S shop sales staff told reporters that Yinglang currently only 2,000 yuan discount, there is no car, need to book; Xinjunwei [review picture forum] and Xinjun Yue [review picture forum] discount rate is only a few thousand dollars, Some models need to be booked.

FAW-Volkswagen's models are even more tight, Sagitar [review picture forum] offers a discount of RMB 2000-4000, and reservations are needed. The booking period is about 1 month; the discount rate of New Bora [review picture forum] is only RMB 4,000. The booking period is also 1 month; golf [review picture forum] 6 is still increasing sales, the booking period is between 2-5 months; the preferential rate of MAGOTAN [review picture forum] is 5,000 yuan, and some models need to be booked.

According to industry analysts, because of the tight production capacity, the prices of Shanghai GM and FAW-Volkswagen vehicles are unlikely to be drastically reduced at the end of the year; Shanghai Volkswagen is likely to have more sales due to the current production capacity. Pressure to dealers for some cars; Dongfeng Nissan is also likely to impulse at the end of the year to further increase the discount rate of its models.

In addition to the above four car companies, other mainstream car companies are under greater pressure this year. From January to September, sales of Beijing Hyundai, BYD, Geely and FAW Toyota were 429,900, 385,600, 285,200 and 272,400 vehicles respectively. The sales targets of these car companies in 2010 were 670,000, 600,000, 400,000 and 500,000, respectively. Through calculations, it can be known that in the remaining three months, the monthly sales volume of these automobile enterprises reached 80,000, 71,500, 38,300 and 75,900 vehicles respectively. In September, Beijing Hyundai, BYD, Geely and FAW Toyota each sold 58,600 vehicles, 32,800 vehicles, 32,600 vehicles and 30,000 vehicles.

“One can imagine that in order to complete the annual production and sales plan, this type of car company will inevitably promote the promotion of the next two months.” Market participants said that there are consumers who purchase these production and sales is not a good brand model plan may wish to wait It will definitely get more benefits before the end of the year.