Downside risks in construction machinery industry increase

The National Bureau of Statistics Service Survey Center and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing jointly announced on the 1st that China's manufacturing purchasing managers index was 50.8% in May, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. This data has cast doubt on the rationality of some people's previous assertions. The initial value of HSBC PMI announced earlier fell below the warning level. From a variety of perspectives, the Chinese economy is in the process of recovery. The economy slowed down in the first quarter, but the 7.7% growth was not bad. From an international comparison point of view, all major countries experienced a slowdown in economic growth in the first quarter, and China’s growth rate is among the highest in the world, so it will attract a large influx of international capital. Looking at some leading indicators, the second quarter continued the momentum of recovery. In April, investment in new projects started increased by 17.8% year-on-year, 2.1 percentage points faster than in March; total electricity consumption in the whole society increased by 6.8% year-on-year, and it rebounded sharply from March of 4.8. Percentage points; power generation volume increased by 6.2% year-on-year, higher than 2.1% in March; business conditions in the building materials industry improved, and cement prices began to rebound. Construction Machinery Online According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, the import and export volume of China's construction machinery for the period from January to March 2013 was US$5.404 billion, a decrease of 10.55% over 2012. The trade surplus was 3.225 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 776 million U.S. dollars.

In terms of imports, the total amount of imported construction machinery in the first quarter was US$622 million, a decrease of 40.8% from 2012, and accounted for 57.12% of total imports. Among them, 2,630 excavators were imported, and the import volume was 239 million U.S. dollars, down 43.77% and 57.63% year-on-year respectively, which was a drop of more than the decline in the total number of construction machinery. However, the excavator's imports accounted for 22% of the total import volume, making it the highest proportion of the total weight of construction machinery. In addition, imports of more products also include loaders, bulldozers, pavers, truck cranes, tractors and so on. The products that have fallen more heavily are tower cranes, crawler cranes, concrete machinery, elevators and escalators, other cranes, pile drivers, rotary drilling rigs, and manual vans. The amount of parts and components imported in the first quarter was 467 million U.S. dollars, a decrease of 37.3% from 2012, accounting for 42.88% of the total import volume. The proportion of parts and components in the total import volume is relatively high. This shows that China's construction machinery industry NEWS.CMOL.COM has a higher degree of foreign dependence. In terms of exports, the total amount of exports in the first quarter was US$3.03 billion, an increase of 5.85% over 2012, accounting for 70.2% of total exports. Among them, products with large export growth include excavators, pavers, forklifts, elevators and escalators, other truck cranes, tractors, pile drivers and rotary drilling rigs, concrete pumps, and concrete mixing machines.

The export value of parts and components was US$1.285 billion, accounting for 29.8% of the total exports, which was a decrease of 7.11% from 2012. Excavators, loaders, truck cranes, forklifts, elevators, escalators, and parts and components are still the main export products of the industry. In the first quarter, they exported a total of US$3.098 billion, accounting for 71.8% of the total exports of construction machinery. The Construction Machinery Forum (BBS.CMOL.COM) provided the Chinese construction machinery market index (CMI) in March 2013 to reach its highest point, and began to decline gradually in April. In May, the CMI was 88, down 2.3% year-on-year and down 20.0% month-on-month (according to the CMI criteria, the CMI was between 50 and 100, indicating pessimism, and the market declined), and the traditional cycle season may have passed. In the CMI index over the years, March was the month with the highest CMI index. From the actual sales figures, in March, the general season was also the traditional peak season for sales of construction machinery. Comparing the CMI values ​​in 2013 and March 2012, a decrease of 10 indicates that the market sentiment in 2013 was weaker than the same period in 2012, while the CMI value in April increased by 16, which is contrary to the expectation of many insiders. The market sentiment in April was better than the same period in 2012; although the market in April increased by nearly 13 percentage points year-on-year, the decline rate was still higher, with a decline of nearly 30%, so if we do not compare historical data, we can easily "Breaked in" short-term market performance, I feel that the market is still going down and I do not see hope.

Through the same period of comparison, we are still cautiously optimistic about the 2013 full-year market, but this round of the peak cycle is nearing completion, and the construction machinery market will still enter the short-period bottom adjustment stage. There are some people who say that “the risk of economic downturn increases.” Some people say that “the recovery has died.” Now it becomes “expect to start to improve.” The reason why many critics have a market because they are not all Unreasonable, the recovery of China's economy is indeed weak, and the growth of debt has also caused concern for all sectors.