Recent steel market trend analysis forecast

Last week, the overall domestic steel market prices continued to be weakly adjusted. Even if some products had a short-term rebound, due to the weaker basis of market operations, it was difficult to maintain the rising prices. The transaction price of Pusteel products has basically been reduced to less than RMB 3,600/ton, and the Beijing market has a certain volume of transactions near RMB 3,550/ton. Shanghai market turnover is slightly enlarged, and on this basis, construction steel and hot-rolled coil products The price has seen a slight increase, but it has not yet shaken off the entire market. Due to the slight decline in the daily production level of crude steel, the social inventory of the major varieties declined slightly under the condition of relatively stable demand, but the overall inventory pressure is still relatively large, which is not conducive to the stability of the market price.

Under the condition that the market price has continued to slump, the steel mills have begun to focus downwardly on the ex-factory prices of the products under the influence of price inversion. In particular, the products of Shanghai Pu Steel, whether it is construction steel or hot-rolled sheet products, will face relatively large price adjustments; Baosteel reduced the ex-factory prices of some of the sheet materials in September and will again have an impact on the entire steel market. The impact on the market psychology is relatively large. The overall price level of the domestic steel market has moved downwards and can be supported at around 3,500 yuan/ton. The 3700 yuan / ton there is a certain degree of pressure on the upper, in such a price range, the market price is a normal performance of repeated fluctuations. To break through this price range, one depends on the degree of market demand amplification, and the other depends on the strength of cost and price support. Otherwise, the domestic steel market will continue to adjust around this point, and there are certain difficulties in the breakthroughs.

The overall social inventory of construction steel products declined. Shanghai stock market is 472,000 tons, stocks are down 0.5 million tons; Guangzhou stocks are 833 thousand tons, stocks are down 28,000 tons; Beijing stocks are 609,000 tons, inventories are down 16,000 tons; Tianjin stocks are 441,000 tons, stocks Increase 10,000 tons.

The overall social inventory of coiled products has not changed generally. In the Shanghai market area, the inventory of hot-rolled coils was 995,000 tons, inventory was increased by 13,000 tons, inventory of cold-rolled coils was 404,000 tons, and inventory was stable. Inventories in Guangzhou market, inventory of hot-rolled coils was 756,000 tons, inventory fell 0.2 10,000 tons, 573,000 tons of cold-rolled coil stocks and 0.8 million tons of inventories; Tianjin hot-rolled coil stocks of 330,000 tons, inventory increase of 0.5 million tons, cold-rolled coil stocks of 98,000 tons, inventory increase 0.2 Ten thousand tons.

The overall price of construction steel products continued to fall. In the Shanghai market, the transaction price of wire products was 3,540 yuan/ton, the transaction price was down 10 yuan/ton, the rebar transaction was 3,530 yuan/ton, the transaction price was down 10 yuan/ton; the Guangzhou market wire price was 3,720 yuan/ton, the price was down 30 yuan / Tons, rebar 3750 yuan / ton, prices fell 20 yuan / ton, three rebar market price 3900 yuan / ton, the price fell 30 yuan / ton; Shenzhen market price of 3780 yuan wire rod / ton, the price fell 20 yuan / Ton, rebar transaction 3850 yuan / ton, the price fell 50 yuan / ton, three rebar market price 3950 yuan / ton, transaction price fell 50 yuan / ton; Beijing market price of wire products 3550 yuan / ton, the price is stable, Rebar 3550 yuan / ton, the price is stable, the difference between the three rebar and secondary rebar is 40 yuan / ton, the difference between the small thread and the big rebar is 120 yuan / ton, the third-level plate screw 3640 yuan / ton, The price rose by 60 yuan/ton. Tianjin market wire price is 3550 yuan/ton, price stability, rebar 3530 yuan/ton, price drop 20 yuan/ton; Shenyang market wire price 3560 yuan/ton, price drop 30 yuan/ton, rebar 3630 yuan/ton, price Down 30 yuan/ton; Baotou market wire price 3700 yuan/ton, price drop 50 yuan/ton, rebar 3730 yuan/ton, price drop 30 yuan/ton; Hohhot market wire price 3800 yuan/ton, stable price, rebar 3800 yuan / ton, transaction price stability; Changsha market wire price 3740 yuan / ton, the price is stable, rebar 3750 yuan / ton, the price rose 30 yuan / ton, three rebar market price 3880 yuan / ton, the price rose 30 yuan / Ton; Taiyuan market wire price 3490 yuan / ton, the price fell 10 yuan / ton, rebar products 3550 yuan / ton, the price fell 40 yuan / ton; Shijiazhuang market wire price 3680 yuan / ton, the price is stable, rebar 3680 yuan / Ton, price stability; Yinchuan market wire price 3710 yuan / ton, the price is stable, rebar 3710 yuan / ton, the transaction price is stable.

The overall transaction price of hot-rolled coil products continued to fall. 3.0mm specification Shanghai market price 3750 yuan / ton, transaction price fell 30 yuan / ton; Tianjin market transaction price 3670 yuan / ton, price fell 20 yuan / ton; Guangzhou market transaction price 3830 yuan / ton, price fell 20 yuan / ton . The transaction price of the 5.5mm specification in the Shanghai market was 3,630 yuan/ton, and the price was stable. The transaction price in the Tianjin market was 3,560 yuan/ton, the price dropped by 50 yuan/ton; the transaction price in the Guangzhou market was 3,660 yuan/ton, and the price fell by 50 yuan/ton.

The market price of cold-rolled coil products continued to decline overall. The transaction price in Shanghai market was 4,350 yuan/ton, and the price was stable; the transaction price in Guangzhou market was 4,360 yuan/ton, the price dropped by 60 yuan/ton; the transaction price in Tianjin market was 4,210 yuan/ton, and the transaction price fell by 20 yuan/ton.

The transaction prices of the plate market continued to drop significantly. The transaction price in Shanghai market was 3,550 yuan/ton, and the transaction price was stable; the transaction price in Guangzhou market was 3,670 yuan/ton, the price dropped by 40 yuan/ton; the transaction price in Tianjin market was 3,380 yuan/ton, and the price fell by 70 yuan/ton.

The transaction price of galvanized sheet products in the market continued to drop substantially. In Shanghai, the transaction price was 4,750 yuan/ton, the price dropped by 80 yuan/ton; the transaction price in Guangzhou market was 4,850 yuan/ton, the transaction price fell by 50 yuan/ton; the transaction price in Tianjin market was 4,700 yuan/ton, and the transaction price fell by 70 yuan/ton.

The transaction price of the hot-rolled strip market dropped as a whole. In the broadband steel products, North China market 3,700 yuan / ton, the price fell 50 yuan / ton; East China market price 3710 yuan / ton, the price fell 20 yuan / ton. The market price of narrow strip steel products, Tianjin market transaction price 3630 yuan / ton, the price fell 50 yuan / ton; Tangshan market price 3750 yuan / ton, the price fell 50 yuan / ton; East China market price 3670 yuan / ton, the price fell 30 yuan / Ton, South China market price of 3700 yuan / ton, the price fell 30 yuan / ton.

The transaction price of the welded pipe products market continued to decline overall. The transaction price in the Tangshan market was 3,670 yuan/ton, the transaction price fell by 70 yuan/ton; the Shanghai market price was 3,950 yuan/ton, and the transaction price was stable.

The transaction price of the billet product market declined as a whole. Tangshan area general carbon billet transaction price 3240 yuan / ton, transaction price fell 60 yuan / ton, low alloy billet price 3340 yuan / ton, transaction price fell 60 yuan / ton.

The transaction prices of the hard-line products market continued to drop substantially. Shanghai market price 3820 yuan / ton, the price fell 50 yuan / ton; Ningbo market price 3820 yuan / ton, the price fell 60 yuan / ton; Tianjin market transaction price 3650 yuan / ton, the price fell 50 yuan / ton; Hangzhou market The transaction price was 3830 yuan/ton, the price was stable; Nantong market transaction price was 3770 yuan/ton, the price dropped 30 yuan/ton; the Guangzhou market transaction price was 3900 yuan/ton, the price dropped 80 yuan/ton.

The transaction price of 30MnSi product market continued to decline overall. Shandong market transaction price 3800 yuan / ton, the price fell 50 yuan / ton, East China market transaction price 3700 yuan / ton, the transaction price is stable.

The transaction price of cold rolled steel products market continued to drop substantially. Shanghai market 35K3850 yuan / ton, prices fell 50 yuan / ton, 22A3920 yuan / ton, prices fell 50 yuan / ton; Guangzhou market 22A3920 yuan / ton, prices fell 80 yuan / ton; Hangzhou market 35K3850 yuan / ton, prices fell 80 Yuan / ton.

The overall sales of wire rod products continued to decline substantially. The transaction price in Tianjin market was 3,550 yuan/ton, the transaction price fell by 50 yuan/ton, the transaction price in Guangzhou market was 3,700 yuan/ton, and the transaction price fell by 100 yuan/ton.

The market price of carbon structural steel products continued to drop substantially. Shanghai market price 3650 yuan / ton, the price fell 80 yuan / ton; Hangzhou market 3,600 yuan / ton, the price fell 120 yuan / ton; Guangzhou market 3650 yuan / ton, the price fell 60 yuan / ton; Fuzhou market 3950 yuan / ton , The price stability; Wenzhou market 3680 yuan / ton, the price fell 100 yuan / ton; Ningbo market 3750 yuan / ton, the price fell 80 yuan / ton; Shenyang market 3670 yuan / ton, the price fell 30 yuan / ton; Chongqing market price 3700 RMB/ton, prices fell by 100 yuan/ton; Tianjin market was 3630 yuan/ton, prices fell by 50 yuan/ton; Xi’an market price was 3,850 yuan/ton, prices fell by 50 yuan/ton; Shijiazhuang market prices were 3,580 yuan/ton by prices 70 yuan/ton.

The market transaction prices of 40Cr-joined steel products continued to drop substantially. Shanghai market 3930 yuan / ton, prices fell 70 yuan / ton; Hangzhou market 3980 yuan / ton, prices fell 50 yuan / ton; Guangzhou market 3980 yuan / ton, prices fell 80 yuan / ton; Tianjin market 4,100 yuan / ton, turnover The price dropped 100 yuan/ton; Ningbo market 3880 yuan/ton, the price fell 180 yuan/ton; Shenyang market 4100 yuan/ton, the transaction price fell 50 yuan/ton; the Chongqing market price 3950 yuan/ton, the transaction price fell 50 yuan/ Ton; Xi'an market price 4350 yuan / ton, transaction price fell 50 yuan / ton.

The overall market price of billet products continued to decline substantially overall. The Wuxi market is 3,550 yuan/ton, the price is down by 80 yuan/ton; the Hangzhou market is 3,580 yuan/ton, the price is down by 100 yuan/ton; Weifang market is 3,580 yuan/ton, the price is down by 40 yuan/ton; the Tianjin market is 3,630 yuan/ton by price Declined by 50 yuan/ton.

The transaction price of the profile product market continued to decline overall. Channel steel products, Tangshan market price 3590 yuan / ton, the price fell 60 yuan / ton; Shanghai market price 3800 yuan / ton, the price stability; Changsha market price 3950 yuan / ton, the price fell 100 yuan / ton; Guangzhou market price 4200 yuan / Ton, price stability.

Angle steel products, Tangshan market transaction price 3540 yuan / ton, the price fell 40 yuan / ton; Shanghai market transaction price 3900 yuan / ton, the price is stable; Guangzhou market price 4130 yuan / ton, the price is stable.

The market price of iron concentrate powder products was generally stable. Tangshan area is 1,050 yuan/ton with stable prices; Northeast China is 900 yuan/ton with stable prices; Zhaoxing district is 1040 yuan/ton with stable prices.

The transaction price of ferroalloy products was generally stable. High-carbon ferromanganese products in Shanxi Province 6200 yuan / ton, the price fell 300 yuan / ton; ferrosilicon alloy Inner Mongolia area 6100 yuan / ton, the price is stable; silicon manganese alloy products in Shanxi 7350 yuan / ton, the price is stable.

The transaction price of metallurgical coke products continued to drop substantially. Tangshan area was 1,530 yuan/ton, transaction price was down 30 yuan/ton; Shandong area was 1,450 yuan/ton, price was stable; Shanxi area was 1,530 yuan/ton, transaction price fell by 100 yuan/ton; Handan area was 1,440 yuan/ton, transaction price fell. 10 yuan/ton.

The transaction price of scrap steel is generally stable. Guangdong market transaction price is 2940 yuan/ton, price is stable; Tianjin market price is 2850 yuan/ton, price is stable; Shandong market transaction price is 2740 yuan/ton, price is stable; Northeast market price is 2800 yuan/ton, price is stable, Tangshan area is 2510 yuan / Ton, prices fell by 20 yuan / ton.

The market price of pig iron products fell overall. Shandong steelmaking pig iron market transaction price of 2880 yuan / ton, the price is stable; Tangshan market price of 2880 yuan / ton, the price is stable; Wu'an market price of 2850 yuan / ton, the price is stable; Shanxi Yicheng transaction price of 2780 yuan / ton, The transaction price fell by 50 yuan/ton.

The purchase price of pig iron products in steel mills has generally declined. The purchase price is basically between 2720-2770 yuan/ton.

From the current domestic steel market operation, the market price has entered a relatively stable range, the current price level, to a certain extent, can inhibit the further release of production capacity, in addition can continue to suppress the production costs of steel mills. Due to the lag in the price fluctuations of the upstream raw material, it is expected that the cost of the market will continue to move downwards. This will not support the cost of the steel plant. Under such circumstances, due to the severe market conditions, even if the daily production level of crude steel declines, the decline will not be significant if the cost is reduced. The relationship between supply and demand will continue to be tense. It will help stabilize the market price. The market in August has been running for nearly half a month. The direction of the market operation is still downward. The repeated fluctuations during the period make the market's various factors constantly optimized. However, there is no major incentive to stimulate the market as a whole. The price of raw materials is still falling slightly. The decline in the price of coal coke is relatively large. The overall cost fluctuation of the market begins to narrow, and the market price has completely entered a new price platform. At this price, the market is difficult to have a deep market. Adjustments, the frequency of narrow adjustments will gradually accelerate, and changes in various elements of the market will become more frequent.